How to check your State Pension forecast
Your State Pension forecast is the most useful number in your financial life, and most people never look at it. This explains how to read it, why contracting out shrinks it, and when paying voluntary National Insurance is money wasted.
Short answer
Check your forecast at GOV.UK using a GOV.UK One Login or Government Gateway account. It shows what you have built up so far, what you could get if you keep contributing, and your State Pension age. Then check your National Insurance record for gaps — but ring the Future Pension Centre before paying to fill any.
Almost everyone assumes the State Pension is automatic: work for enough years, reach the age, get the money. The forecast service exists because that assumption is wrong often enough to matter. Your entitlement is built from qualifying years of National Insurance, and there are several common ways to have fewer of them than you expect — time abroad, self-employment with unpaid Class 2, years on low earnings below the threshold, a stretch of caring you never claimed credits for, or a period of contracting out that quietly reduced your starting amount.
The forecast turns all of that into one number and one date. It is free, it takes about five minutes, and it is the only way to see the effect of your own record rather than the general rule. Two people with identical work histories can have different forecasts because one was in a contracted-out workplace scheme in the 1990s and the other was not.
The genuinely expensive mistake is not the missing years. It is filling them wrongly. Voluntary National Insurance is not refundable, and paying for a year that does not increase your pension — because your starting amount is already at the maximum, or because the year falls outside the useful window — is money that simply disappears. The Future Pension Centre exists to tell you which years are worth buying, and calling it before you pay is the whole game.
This page covers how to get the forecast, how to read the National Insurance record behind it, what contracting out did, which credits you can claim without paying anything, when voluntary contributions genuinely pay for themselves, and how the picture differs across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Get the forecast and read it properly
Go to the Check your State Pension forecast service on GOV.UK and sign in. You will need a GOV.UK One Login or an older Government Gateway account, and you will have to confirm your identity — usually with a passport, a UK driving licence, or details from a recent payslip or P60. If you cannot get through the identity check online, the forecast can be requested by post or by phone instead.
The forecast gives you three things. The first is the amount you have built up to date, expressed as a weekly figure. The second is the amount you could get if you carry on contributing until State Pension age. The third is your State Pension age itself, which is not fixed for life — it has been legislated upwards more than once, and the date shown is the date under the law as it currently stands.
The gap between the two amounts is the important part. If the forecast says you have built up less than the full amount but could reach it by continuing to work, the honest answer for most people in their forties and fifties is to do nothing at all: ordinary employment will fill the remaining years automatically. If it says you cannot reach the full amount even by working to pension age, that is the signal to look at the record in detail.
Underneath the forecast sits your National Insurance record, year by year, since you were 16. Each year shows as a full year, a year with a shortfall, or a year with nothing. A year is full when you paid or were credited with enough contributions across the whole tax year — not when you worked for part of it. Someone who worked eight months of a tax year on decent pay may still have a full year; someone who worked all year on very low weekly earnings across several small jobs may not.
Look for three specific patterns. Years abroad appear as gaps and usually are gaps, though a reciprocal social security agreement may mean the foreign contributions count towards qualifying, and periods in the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein are handled under separate coordination rules. Years of self-employment appear as shortfalls where Class 2 was not paid or was not collected properly — a known problem for people whose Self Assessment returns did not carry the Class 2 charge through. Years of low-paid or part-time employment appear as shortfalls where earnings sat below the qualifying threshold.
The forecast also flags a Contracted Out Pension Equivalent, usually shown as COPE, if you were ever in a contracted-out scheme. This is the single most misread part of the whole service, and it deserves its own explanation.
Print or save the forecast. If you later ring the Future Pension Centre or HMRC, the first thing they will ask about is what your record shows, and having the year-by-year list in front of you turns a long call into a short one.
What contracting out did to your starting amount
Before April 2016 the State Pension had two parts: a flat basic pension and an earnings-related additional pension, at various times called SERPS or the State Second Pension. Employers running a salary-related occupational scheme could contract their employees out of the additional pension. In exchange, both the employer and the employee paid a lower rate of National Insurance, and the workplace scheme promised to provide at least an equivalent benefit.
Almost every public sector scheme — NHS, teachers, civil service, local government, police, fire, armed forces — was contracted out, along with a very large number of private final salary schemes. If you worked in any of those before April 2016, you were almost certainly contracted out for part of your career whether or not you remember being told.
When the new State Pension started in April 2016, everyone with a pre-2016 record was given a starting amount: the higher of what they had built up under the old rules and what they would have built up if the new rules had always applied. The contracted-out deduction is applied in working out that starting amount. The result is that people with long contracted-out service often show a starting amount well below the full new State Pension, even with a complete contribution record.
This is not a mistake and it is not a loss in the round. The reduced National Insurance you paid at the time went into a workplace scheme that should be paying you a corresponding benefit. But it does mean two things in practice. First, the number of qualifying years you need to reach the full new State Pension can be more than the headline figure. Second, additional post-2016 qualifying years can increase your amount up to the full rate, so continuing to work or to be credited genuinely adds money for people in this position.
The practical instruction is simple: do not count your years and assume you know the answer. Read the forecast. It has already done the calculation, including the contracted-out adjustment, on your actual record.
If your forecast shows you at the full amount already, further qualifying years add nothing to the State Pension. That is worth knowing before you consider paying voluntary contributions, and it is the most common reason a voluntary payment turns out to have been wasted.
Credits: qualifying years you do not have to buy
National Insurance credits fill gaps for free, and a large number of people who are entitled to them never claim. Credits are awarded automatically in some situations and only on application in others, and the ones that need an application are exactly the ones that get missed.
Child Benefit is the big one. A parent or carer claiming Child Benefit for a child under 12 receives credits that protect their State Pension record. The trap is the High Income Child Benefit Charge: where one partner's income is high, families often decide not to claim at all. That decision also throws away the credits. The correct move is to register the claim and elect not to receive the payments — you get the credits, and no charge arises because no money is paid. This has cost a great many parents, overwhelmingly mothers, whole qualifying years.
Carer's Credit is available to people caring for someone for at least a set number of hours a week who are not entitled to Carer's Allowance. It is claimed on a form, not awarded automatically, and it is one of the least-claimed credits in the system.
Specified Adult Childcare Credits transfer the credit attached to Child Benefit from a parent who does not need it — typically because they are working and building their own record — to a grandparent or other family member under State Pension age who provides childcare. Both parties have to agree and the claim is made retrospectively after the tax year ends.
Credits are also awarded while claiming Carer's Allowance, Universal Credit, Jobseeker's Allowance, Employment and Support Allowance, Maternity Allowance, statutory maternity, paternity or adoption pay in some circumstances, and for people on jury service or receiving certain disability benefits. Class 3 credits also cover spouses and civil partners of members of the armed forces accompanying them on posting abroad.
Two practical points. Credits generally have to be applied for within time limits, so an old gap may no longer be fixable by credit even though it was fixable at the time. And a credit and a voluntary contribution do the same job for the same year — so always check whether a credit is available before paying, because the credit is free.
Filling gaps with voluntary contributions — and when not to
Voluntary contributions let you pay for a past year that is incomplete. Class 3 is the general route; Class 2 is the cheaper self-employed route where you qualify for it. The ordinary rule is that you can go back six tax years, though extended windows have been opened at various times for people affected by the 2016 transition, and the deadline for those has moved more than once. Check the current position on GOV.UK rather than relying on a date you read somewhere.
Work through it in this order. First, look at the forecast: if you are already at, or will reach, the full new State Pension through ordinary work, stop — paying adds nothing. Second, check whether the gap year can be filled by a credit instead. Third, if a payment does look worthwhile, ring the Future Pension Centre if you are below State Pension age, or the Pension Service if you have reached it, and ask them to confirm which specific years will increase your pension and by how much.
That phone call is not a formality. There are several situations where paying does nothing at all: your starting amount is already the maximum; the year falls in a period where a contracted-out deduction absorbs the benefit; or you have enough post-2016 years already scheduled to reach the full rate. HMRC will accept the money in all of those cases. It will not tell you it was pointless, and it will not refund it as a matter of course.
Where a payment does work, the arithmetic is usually striking. A single qualifying year adds a fixed increment to the weekly pension for life. For anyone with normal life expectancy, the payment is typically recovered within a small number of years of drawing the pension, after which it is pure gain — and it is index-linked. Very few financial products offer that. This is why the advice is to check whether it works, not to avoid it.
Get a reference number from HMRC before paying. Voluntary contributions paid without the correct reference are a well-known source of payments landing unallocated, and chasing them afterwards is slow. Keep the payment confirmation and check the National Insurance record a few weeks later to confirm the year has flipped to full.
Finally, consider order of operations against other uses of the same money. Paying off expensive debt, or capturing an employer pension match you are currently declining, will usually beat a voluntary contribution. Voluntary National Insurance is excellent value where it works, but it is not the first call on limited money.
Deferring, working on, and what happens when you claim
The State Pension is not paid automatically. You have to claim it, and the invitation letter usually arrives a few months before State Pension age. If you do nothing, the pension is simply deferred rather than lost.
Deferring increases the amount you eventually receive. Under the new State Pension the increase accrues for each full period of deferral and is paid as a higher weekly pension for life; under the older rules a lump sum option existed for some people. The increase is worthwhile for people who expect to live a long time and who do not need the income now, and poor value for people in poor health or who need the money immediately.
Deferring interacts badly with means-tested benefits. If you are receiving Pension Credit, Housing Benefit or certain other income-related help, deferring generally does not increase those payments and can leave you worse off overall. Anyone in that position should claim rather than defer.
Working past State Pension age does not stop you receiving the pension, and you stop paying employee National Insurance on your earnings from that point — though the employer continues to pay theirs. Your pension income is taxable, but it is paid without tax deducted, so the tax is usually collected by adjusting the code on another source of income, which is a frequent cause of surprising tax codes in the first year of retirement.
Check whether Pension Credit is available. It tops up income for people over State Pension age on low incomes, and it is significantly under-claimed. It also acts as a passport to other help — including help with council tax, NHS costs and, in some years, cost of living or heating payments — so the value of claiming is usually well above the top-up itself.
Get proof of your State Pension when you need it for a mortgage, a tenancy, a visa or a benefit claim. GOV.UK provides a downloadable statement rather than requiring a letter to be posted, which is faster than most people expect.
England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
The State Pension and National Insurance are reserved matters. The rules, the qualifying years, the forecast service and the voluntary contribution regime are identical in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and the same GOV.UK service covers all four nations.
Northern Ireland runs its own delivery. Social security in Northern Ireland is a transferred matter operated in parity with Great Britain, and pensions and National Insurance there are administered by the Department for Communities rather than the Department for Work and Pensions. In practice the entitlement is the same, but the contact points and much of the published guidance are on nidirect rather than GOV.UK, and using the Northern Ireland pages avoids being given a Great Britain phone number that cannot help you.
What genuinely differs is everything wrapped around the pension. Scotland has devolved a substantial part of the benefits system to Social Security Scotland, so a Scottish pensioner's non-pension support — including winter heating assistance and carer benefits — comes from different schemes with different names and different rules from the equivalents in England and Wales. Council Tax Reduction, help with health costs and social care charging also diverge across the four nations.
Pension Credit itself is a reserved benefit and works the same way UK-wide, but the passported help it unlocks does not. A Pension Credit award opens different doors in Glasgow, Cardiff, Belfast and Bristol, so check the devolved guidance for what a successful claim entitles you to locally.
The practical rule: use GOV.UK for the pension itself wherever you live, use nidirect if you are in Northern Ireland and need to contact someone, and use mygov.scot, GOV.WALES or nidirect for the surrounding benefits and services, which are where the four nations actually part company.
When the record is wrong
National Insurance records do contain errors, and the two most common are worth knowing. The first is missing Home Responsibilities Protection or its successor credits for years spent caring for children — an error that affected a large cohort of people, overwhelmingly women, whose Child Benefit claims did not carry a National Insurance number. The second is unpaid or unallocated Class 2 contributions for self-employed years, where the charge was not collected correctly through Self Assessment.
Both are correctable, and correcting them is free. Contact HMRC's National Insurance enquiries line with the years in question and the evidence you have — Child Benefit correspondence, payslips, P60s, employer names and dates, or Self Assessment records. Missing employed earnings can often be reconstructed from the employer's own returns.
If HMRC's record disagrees with your evidence and you cannot resolve it, there is a formal route: ask for the decision to be reviewed, and if that fails, appeal to the First-tier Tribunal. This is the same appeal structure used for tax decisions, and there is no fee to appeal a National Insurance decision.
Where the problem is not the record but the way you were dealt with — long delays, wrong information given on the phone, a payment lost — use HMRC's complaints process first, then the Adjudicator's Office, and then the Parliamentary and Health Service Ombudsman through your MP. Redress for direct financial loss caused by official error is available, but only if you complain in a form that creates a record.
Keep evidence permanently. Old P60s, payslips and Child Benefit letters are the only practical way to reconstruct a record from decades ago, and the people who successfully fix forty-year-old gaps are almost always the ones who kept the paper.
Finally, re-check after any correction. A fixed year should appear as a full year on the National Insurance record and should move the forecast. If it does not move the forecast, that is itself useful information — it usually means the year was never going to add anything, which is the same reason not to have paid for it.
Key takeaways
- The forecast already accounts for contracting out and your actual record, so read it rather than counting qualifying years and assuming you know the answer.
- Ring the Future Pension Centre before paying voluntary National Insurance — HMRC will take money for years that add nothing to your pension and will not warn you.
- Registering for Child Benefit and electing not to receive the payments preserves National Insurance credits when the High Income Child Benefit Charge would otherwise apply.
- Carer's Credit and Specified Adult Childcare Credits are claimed on a form, not awarded automatically, and are among the least-claimed entitlements in the system.
- Deferring raises the pension for life but usually leaves people on Pension Credit or Housing Benefit worse off, so claim rather than defer if you receive means-tested help.
- The State Pension is reserved and identical across all four nations, but Northern Ireland administers it through the Department for Communities and the benefits wrapped around it differ sharply in Scotland.
Who to contact
Confirms which voluntary National Insurance years will actually increase your pension, before you pay.
State Pension claims, payments and queries once you have reached State Pension age.
Check your State Pension forecast
The forecast service itself, including the year-by-year National Insurance record.
nidirect — State Pension forecast
The Northern Ireland route, administered by the Department for Communities.
At a glance
- Where to check
- GOV.UK forecast serviceNeeds a GOV.UK One Login or Government Gateway account
- What it shows
- Amount so far, potential amount, pension agePlus a year-by-year National Insurance record
- Minimum for any pension
- Usually 10 qualifying yearsSet in legislation — confirm against your own forecast
- Full new State Pension
- Usually around 35 qualifying yearsTransitional rules mean some people need more
- Contracting out
- Reduces your starting amountApplies to many pre-2016 workplace and public sector schemes
- Before paying voluntary NI
- Ring the Future Pension CentreThey confirm whether a year will actually increase your pension
- Credits
- Free qualifying yearsFor Child Benefit, caring, illness, unemployment and more
- State Pension is reserved
- Same rules UK-wideDelivery in Northern Ireland runs through the Department for Communities
How to check your State Pension forecast — FAQ
How do I check my State Pension forecast?
Use the Check your State Pension forecast service on GOV.UK, signing in with a GOV.UK One Login or Government Gateway account and confirming your identity. It shows what you have built up, what you could reach by State Pension age, and your pension age itself, along with a year-by-year National Insurance record. It can also be requested by post or phone.
How many qualifying years do I need for a full State Pension?
Usually around 35 qualifying years for the full new State Pension and at least 10 for any pension at all. Transitional rules mean some people need more, particularly anyone with contracted-out service before April 2016. Because the calculation depends on your own starting amount, the forecast is the reliable answer and a year count is not.
Is it worth paying voluntary National Insurance contributions?
Often yes, but not always, and it is not refundable. A year that genuinely increases your pension usually pays for itself within a few years of drawing it and then keeps paying, index-linked, for life. A year that does not increase it is money gone. Ring the Future Pension Centre and get confirmation of which specific years will help before paying anything.
What does COPE mean on my State Pension forecast?
Contracted Out Pension Equivalent. It reflects periods when you were contracted out of the additional State Pension — common in NHS, teaching, civil service, local government and private final salary schemes — and paid lower National Insurance in exchange. It reduces your starting amount for the new State Pension, but your workplace scheme should be providing the corresponding benefit.
I opted out of Child Benefit because of the high income charge. Have I lost pension credits?
Possibly, and it is worth fixing. The correct approach is to register the Child Benefit claim but elect not to receive the payments, which preserves the National Insurance credits without triggering the charge. If you never registered, contact HMRC — some historic gaps caused by missing Home Responsibilities Protection have been corrected retrospectively.
Is the State Pension different in Scotland or Northern Ireland?
No. The State Pension and National Insurance are reserved and identical across all four nations. Northern Ireland administers its own system in parity through the Department for Communities, so use nidirect for contacts there. What differs is the surrounding support — Scotland's devolved benefits, and Council Tax Reduction, health costs and social care charging in each nation.
What if my National Insurance record has years missing that I know I worked?
Contact HMRC's National Insurance enquiries with the years, employer names, dates and any payslips or P60s you have. Missing employed earnings can usually be reconstructed. Unpaid Class 2 self-employment years and missing caring credits are the two most common errors. If HMRC will not correct it, you can ask for a review and then appeal to the First-tier Tribunal free of charge.
Read next
Sources & provenance
Facts verified
- 1.Check your State Pension forecast OfficialUK GovernmentUsed for: The forecast service, what it shows and how to access it by post or phone
- 2.Check your National Insurance record OfficialUK GovernmentUsed for: The year-by-year record, how gaps and shortfalls are displayed and how to query them
- 3.Voluntary National Insurance OfficialUK GovernmentUsed for: Class 2 and Class 3 contributions, the years you can pay for and the current deadlines
- 4.The new State Pension: Eligibility OfficialUK GovernmentUsed for: Qualifying years, the starting amount and the effect of contracting out before April 2016
- 5.National Insurance credits OfficialUK GovernmentUsed for: Which credits are automatic, which must be applied for, and the circumstances each covers
- 6.Check your State Pension age OfficialUK GovernmentUsed for: How State Pension age is determined and that it is set by legislation rather than fixed
- 7.Defer (delay) your State Pension OfficialUK GovernmentUsed for: How deferral increases the weekly amount and how it interacts with means-tested benefits
- 8.Get your State Pension OfficialUK GovernmentUsed for: That the pension must be claimed rather than paid automatically, and how the invitation works
- 9.Contact the Future Pension Centre OfficialUK GovernmentUsed for: The body that confirms whether a voluntary contribution year will increase your pension
- 10.Contact the Pension Service OfficialUK GovernmentUsed for: The contact route once State Pension age has been reached
- 11.Pension Credit OfficialUK GovernmentUsed for: The income top-up for pensioners and its role as a passport to other help
- 12.Get proof of your benefits and State Pension OfficialUK GovernmentUsed for: How to obtain a statement for a mortgage, tenancy, visa or benefit claim
- 13.Check your State Pension Forecast (Northern Ireland) OfficialnidirectUsed for: The Northern Ireland route and Department for Communities administration
- 14.Voluntary National Insurance contributions (Northern Ireland) OfficialnidirectUsed for: Confirms parity of the voluntary contribution rules in Northern Ireland
Not a source — AI-assisted analysis on this page
- AI-assisted analysis — the forecast is checked too late to be useful — The judgement that the State Pension forecast is habitually opened in the sixties, when only expensive options remain, and that its real value lies in triggering free fixes — Child Benefit registration, Carer's Credit, transferred childcare credits, correcting Class 2 years inside the ordinary window — is our analysis. GOV.UK documents the forecast, the credits and the voluntary contribution rules; none of them frames the timing of the check as the decisive variable.
The forecast service, the National Insurance record, qualifying years, the starting amount and contracted-out deduction, credits, voluntary Class 2 and Class 3 contributions, deferral and Pension Credit all come from the GOV.UK and nidirect sources cited above. Deliberately not quoted: weekly State Pension amounts, voluntary contribution rates, the earnings thresholds that make a year qualifying, State Pension ages by birth date, and the current deadline for paying historic voluntary contributions. All of these change, several change annually, and the extended window for pre-2016 years has moved more than once — take current figures from GOV.UK and confirm any payment with the Future Pension Centre before making it. The State Pension and National Insurance are reserved matters and identical across all four nations; Northern Ireland administers them in parity through the Department for Communities, and devolved benefits in Scotland and Wales differ. One passage is marked as AI-assisted analysis. This is general information, not financial advice.
Facts on this page are taken from the sources listed above — UK government departments, devolved administrations, regulators, statutory bodies and official statistical releases. Comparisons, judgements and "which option suits whom" conclusions are AI-assisted analysis written over those sources; they are marked in the text and listed as an AI-analysis entry in the sources, not attributed to any authority. Rates, thresholds, fees and processing times change, usually at the start of a tax year in April; figures are current as at the review date shown and should be confirmed with the responsible body before you rely on them. Much of what follows differs between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland — where it does, this site says so.